There were 10 cases of interval lung cancers (6% of lung cancers and 6% of participants), defined as lung cancer diagnosis within 1 year of negative-result screening. Lung cancer stage was between T0 and T1 in one case, and between T1 and T4 in 9 cases. Of the 172 lung cancers that were observed in the PanCan model, 77% of them were early stage, while 57% only were early stage in the NLST (P <.0001).
The PanCan model more effectively identified patients who eventually developed early stage, therefore potentially curable, lung cancer than other predictive models. The authors concluded “[t]his approach should be considered for adoption in lung cancer screening programs.”
Tammemagi MC, Schmidt H, Martel S, et al. Participant selection for lung cancer screening by risk modelling (the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer [PanCan] study): a single-arm, prospective study [published online October 18, 2017]. Lancet Oncol. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(17)30597-1