There were 10 cases of interval lung cancers (6% of lung cancers and 6% of participants), defined as lung cancer diagnosis within 1 year of negative-result screening. Lung cancer stage was between T0 and T1 in one case, and between T1 and T4 in 9 cases. Of the 172 lung cancers that were observed in the PanCan model, 77% of them were early stage, while 57% only were early stage in the NLST (P <.0001).

The PanCan model more effectively identified patients who eventually developed early stage, therefore potentially curable, lung cancer than other predictive models. The authors concluded “[t]his approach should be considered for adoption in lung cancer screening programs.”

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Tammemagi MC, Schmidt H, Martel S, et al. Participant selection for lung cancer screening by risk modelling (the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer [PanCan] study): a single-arm, prospective study [published online October 18, 2017]. Lancet Oncol. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(17)30597-1